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09💰Follow The Money
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21📊MOST INTERES…
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24📈INTERESTING …
25⚖Dirty Politics
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🌱

THRESHOLD CROSSED

Climate Engineering

Central Hypothesis

“Track the feasibility, risks, governance, and field evidence for climate intervention approaches.”
Evidence strength · grounded
34 sourced findings·6 corroborated
75%

⚠️ APPROACHING THRESHOLD — 1.5°C Paris Limit

+1.32°C
1.5°C
0°C1.0°C1.5°C2.0°C
4.1Planetary Vital Signs1 live
375

2025 was the third-warmest year at +1.17°C above the 20th-century average, while CO2 removal leaves modeled warming hysteresis; IPCC briefed negotiators as pressure for intervention grows.

bar = value against the largest on this card
MetricValueDetail
Global temperature anomaly
Global temp anomaly: August…
▾
MetricGlobal temperature anomaly
ValueGlobal temp anomaly: August 2026 was 1.32°C above the 20th-century average, the warmest August in the 1850-2026 record; June-August was also record-warm and January-August ranked second warmest (NOAA NCEI, 2026-09-10)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) NOAA's August analysis found the month 1.32°C above the 20th-century average, a record for August, while the June-August season also set a global record and January-August ranked second warmest. (2) The record was accompanied by an all-time-high global sea surface temperature and persistent El Niño conditions, although the report also notes regional variation and below-average sea
80x1
ncei.noaa.gov
CO2-removal warming hysteresis
Observation-constrained GMST…
▾
MetricCO2-removal warming hysteresis
ValueObservation-constrained GMST hysteresis: median 0.66°C [0.50-0.95] under CO2 removal; temperature recovers only about 83% after CO2 returns to its initial level (Nature, 2026-04-09)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) The study calibrates a three-layer energy-balance model to historical surface and ocean observations and applies it to a CO2 ramp-up/ramp-down removal scenario. (2) Nonlinear climate feedbacks and heat redistribution through multiple ocean layers delay the surface-temperature response, so reversing atmospheric CO2 does not immediately reverse warming. (3) Carbon removal should not be treated as an instant temperature reset: climate-engineering plans need to budget for residual warming, hysteresis, and structural uncertainty after atmospheric concentrations decline.
73
nature.com
IPCC joins UNFCCC June Climate Meetings (SB64) in Bonn
8-18 June 2026, Bonn…
▾
MetricIPCC joins UNFCCC June Climate Meetings (SB64) in Bonn
Value8-18 June 2026, Bonn (IPCC/UNFCCC)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) The IPCC participated in the 64th session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies, the mid-year negotiating round ahead of the annual COP, held in Bonn from June 8-18, 2026. (2) IPCC's role is to brief negotiators on the physical-science and mitigation-pathway findings that inform binding UNFCCC decisions, keeping the science-to-policy pipeline active outside COP years.
73
ipcc.ch
4.2Breakthroughs1 live
1676

Enhanced rock weathering and temporary CDR studies narrow the reliability of carbon removal, while geothermal drilling, EGS output, and federal field programs show technical progress without closing the deployment gap.

🥇
🥈
🥉
4.3Geoengineering Controversies1 live
471

Unauthorized stratospheric aerosol injection detected. UN Security Council emergency session triggered.

Land-intensive CDR competing with climate refugia and biodiversity hotspots— increasing↑ RISING
high
0255075100
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

CAUSAL: (1) A 103-city assessment of European Mission Cities found that compensation portfolios are dominated by land-based CDR, while only a minority

▾
RiskLand-intensive CDR competing with climate refugia and biodiversity hotspots
Severityhigh
Trendincreasing
DetailCAUSAL: (1) A 103-city assessment of European Mission Cities found that compensation portfolios are dominated by land-based CDR, while only a minority of cities consider permanent CDR or carbon storage in buildings; the study's Residual Emissions Strategy Robustness Index also found widespread weaknesses in quantifying residual emissions and CDR potential, monitoring, reporting, verification, and
76x1
nature.com
Solar geoengineering governance gap and private deployment risk— increasing↑ RISING
high
0255075100
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

CAUSAL: (1) GAO's March 2026 assessment finds the methods remain immature, with deployment demonstrated mainly through models, laboratory work, and on

▾
RiskSolar geoengineering governance gap and private deployment risk
Severityhigh
Trendincreasing
DetailCAUSAL: (1) GAO's March 2026 assessment finds the methods remain immature, with deployment demonstrated mainly through models, laboratory work, and only a few outdoor experiments; it also records no international consensus on regulation or research coordination and limited US federal oversight.
71
gao.gov
Marine CDR deployment without robust monitoring, ecological safeguards, and governance— new↑ RISING
high
0255075100
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

CAUSAL: (1) The review identifies three barriers to marine carbon dioxide removal: major knowledge gaps, social-ecological risks, and fragmented gover

▾
RiskMarine CDR deployment without robust monitoring, ecological safeguards, and governance
Severityhigh
Trendnew
DetailCAUSAL: (1) The review identifies three barriers to marine carbon dioxide removal: major knowledge gaps, social-ecological risks, and fragmented governance; it considers coastal blue-carbon restoration the only approach both safe and technologically ready, with low capture potential. (2) Most novel approaches remain unproven and could disturb ecosystems, oxygen and nutrient dynamics, maritime uses, and communities, while weak monitoring, reporting, verification, and environmental assessment make effects difficult to verify. (3) The authors call for precautionary, tightly regulated research and argue that approaches beyond blue carbon should not yet be treated as scalable climate solutions, narrowing near-term deployment claims.
69
nature.com
Unaccounted social costs of solar radiation management (SAI/MCB) deployment— increasing↑ RISING
high
0255075100
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

CAUSAL: (1) A peer-reviewed Nature Communications Earth & Environment analysis finds that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), while cheap on paper

▾
RiskUnaccounted social costs of solar radiation management (SAI/MCB) deployment
Severityhigh
Trendincreasing
DetailCAUSAL: (1) A peer-reviewed Nature Communications Earth & Environment analysis finds that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), while cheap on paper (~$18B/year to cut global temperature 1°C), would impose $0-809 billion annually in unpriced side-effect harms on the 0-7% of the world's population it disproportionately damages, with marine cloud brightening (MCB) likely worse due to its regional deployment. (2) The severity is rising because SAI's back-of-envelope economics keep making it look attractive relative to worsening climate damages, even though the study shows termination-shock risk and the need for unprecedented global cooperation are not captured in that cost comparison. (3) This implies that geoengineering controversy is shifting from a purely technical feasibility debate to a political-economy one: any real-world deployment would create clear winners and losers requiring compensation mechanisms that do not yet exist, which is exactly the kind of gap that turns unilateral or unauthorized SAI action into a live risk for this topic.
67
nature.com
4.4Carbon Removal Scorecard3 live
577

Direct air capture scaling fast. Cost per tonne dropping but still above $95. Five methods tracked.

Gap to 2× Target

50%

Current

2231

→

Target

4461

TARGET 4461 Mt
54.7 Mt♻️Large-…
10 Mt🌊Deep-…
2023 Mt♻️Electroche…
40 Mt🌊Ocean…
103 Mt♻️European…
+2231 Mt
GAP
❌Needed
4.5Carbon Markets
178

Voluntary and compliance carbon markets expanding rapidly. Price divergence between high and low-quality credits widening.

bar = value against the largest on this card
MetricValueDetail
EU ETS2 frontloading finance and price-stability safeguards
Provisional EU agreement (11…
▾
MetricEU ETS2 frontloading finance and price-stability safeguards
ValueProvisional EU agreement (11 June 2026): stronger ETS2 Market Stability Reserve interventions, early auctions in 2027, and up to €3 billion in Commission-EIB frontloading finance for Member States during 2026-2027 before full operation in 2028 (European Commission, 2026-06-11)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) Parliament and Council agreed safeguards that double potential allowance injections above a price trigger and allow earlier, gradual releases, while an ETS2 Frontloading Facility makes up to €3 billion available. (2) The mechanism brings transition finance and a carbon-price signal forward for buildings, road transport, and other sectors.
78
climate.ec.europa.eu
4.6Renewable Energy Race
177

Solar and wind deployment accelerating beyond forecasts. Grid integration and storage remain bottlenecks.

bar = value against the largest on this card
MetricValueDetail
Renewables share of global energy supply growth
Solar >25% of global energy…
▾
MetricRenewables share of global energy supply growth
ValueSolar PV: >25% of global energy demand growth in 2025 (first time a renewable source led growth); 800 GW of renewable capacity added, up 16% (IEA Global Energy Review 2026, 2026-04-20)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) IEA's Global Energy Review 2026 found solar PV was the single largest contributor to global energy supply growth in 2025; over a quarter of the increase; the first time on record a modern renewable led global primary energy growth, while renewable capacity additions overall rose 16% to 800 GW, the 23rd consecutive record year. (2) The mechanism is falling solar costs and faster permitting combined with surging electricity demand from data centers and EVs, which pulled generation investment toward the fastest-to-deploy technology; renewables and nuclear together met nearly 60% of all energy demand growth. (3) This implies the "renewables race" is now structurally ahead of fossil buildout in incremental terms, which strengthens the case that emissions-reduction technology, not just engineered climate intervention, is the dominant lever currently moving the topic's trajectory, though the IEA also notes coal demand still rose in the U.S. on gas-to-coal switching, showing the transition remains uneven.
77
iea.org
4.7Climate Migration
176

Climate-driven displacement accelerating. 40M+ people displaced annually. Adaptation funding critically short.

Northward expansion of humid-heat exposure can create climate-migration pressure despite CDR— increasing↑ RISING
high
0255075100
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

CAUSAL: (1) A 2026 China CDR model study finds only partial WBGT reversal: 0.36°C remains unrecovered after 60 years, and more than 2.0×10^8 people re

▾
RiskNorthward expansion of humid-heat exposure can create climate-migration pressure despite CDR
Severityhigh
Trendincreasing
DetailCAUSAL: (1) A 2026 China CDR model study finds only partial WBGT reversal: 0.36°C remains unrecovered after 60 years, and more than 2.0×10^8 people remain exposed to high humid heat at the end of removal. (2) Affected high-risk zones shift northward from about 25°N to 27°N, with warm-moist advection and humidity overshoot sustaining exposure.
76
nature.com
4.8Extreme Weather Events
178

Record-breaking extreme weather events accelerating. Attribution science confirms climate change link in 90%+ of major events.

NATOBRICSEurope summer 2026 heatwaves: June temperatures reached up to 41°C for 100 million Europeans, with all-time heat records broken in thousands of cities (European Commission, 2026-07-09) (score: 78/100)TWJune temperaScore 75+Score 50+Score <50
TWJune temperatur
4.9Ocean Health
173

Ocean ecosystems under unprecedented stress. Coral bleaching, deoxygenation, and plastic pollution reaching critical thresholds.

bar = value against the largest on this card
MetricValueDetail
Extreme-precipitation control of ocean carbon exchange
1990-2023 analysis…
▾
MetricExtreme-precipitation control of ocean carbon exchange
Value1990-2023 analysis: increasing maximum 1-day precipitation from 0 to 30 mm modeled sea-air CO2-flux reductions of 123 mmol m−2 month−1 in the South Pacific and 140 mmol m−2 month−1 in the South Atlantic; omitting precipitation may overestimate FCO2 by about 20% (Nature Communications, 2026-03-30)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) A peer-reviewed analysis finds extreme precipitation is a previously underrepresented driver of ocean carbon exchange, with the strongest effects in the South Pacific and South Atlantic. (2) Freshwater pulses dilute surface salinity and alkalinity, strengthen stratification, and reduce contact between deep carbon-rich water and the atmosphere; the modeled response turns a weak source
73
nature.com
4.10Green Finance
178

Climate finance flows reaching record levels but still far short of need. Green bonds, ESG mandates, and transition finance evolving.

bar = value against the largest on this card
MetricValueDetail
EU Modernisation Fund climate-transition disbursement
€2.5 billion disbursed for 51…
▾
MetricEU Modernisation Fund climate-transition disbursement
Value€2.5 billion disbursed for 51 energy projects in 11 EU Member States (European Commission, 2026-07-02)
DetailCAUSAL: (1) The European Commission and European Investment Bank announced a €2.5 billion Modernisation Fund disbursement covering 51 energy-related projects across 11 Member States. (2) The mechanism is public concessional finance directed into energy-system modernization, bringing capital toward the infrastructure that can reduce emissions and improve resilience.
78
climate.ec.europa.eu
▸Verified Sources (166)

This topic's hunt pipeline cites only these 166 domains — no general web sources.

Government / Regulator

  • NASA — nasa.gov
  • NOAA — noaa.gov
  • U.S. EPA — epa.gov
  • U.S. Department of Energy — energy.gov
  • UK Met Office — metoffice.gov.uk
  • European Space Agency — esa.int
  • EU Copernicus — copernicus.eu
  • U.S. Geological Survey — usgs.gov
  • NOAA Climate.gov — climate.gov
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture — usda.gov
  • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service — fws.gov
  • UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs — defra.gov.uk
  • Environment Agency of England — environment-agency.gov.uk
  • Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water — dcceew.gov.au
  • Japan Meteorological Agency — jma.go.jp
  • Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency — jaxa.jp
  • Indian Space Research Organisation — isro.gov.in

International Organisation

  • IPCC — ipcc.ch
  • UNFCCC — unfccc.int
  • World Meteorological Organization — wmo.int
  • UN Environment Programme — unep.org
  • IRENA (renewables) — irena.org
  • International Energy Agency — iea.org
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — ecmwf.int
  • EUMETSAT — eumetsat.int
  • UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission — ioc.unesco.org

Research / Journal

  • Nature — nature.com
  • Science (AAAS) — science.org
  • PNAS — pnas.org
  • American Geophysical Union — agu.org
  • arXiv — arxiv.org
  • Annual Reviews — annualreviews.org
  • Royal Society Publishing — royalsocietypublishing.org
  • IOP Publishing — iopscience.iop.org
  • American Meteorological Society — ametsoc.org
  • EarthArXiv — eartharxiv.org

Primary Lab / Company

  • CSIRO — csiro.au
  • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution — whoi.edu
  • Scripps Institution of Oceanography — scripps.ucsd.edu
  • National Oceanography Centre — noc.ac.uk
  • Plymouth Marine Laboratory — pml.ac.uk

Statistical / Data Agency

  • National Snow and Ice Data Center — nsidc.org
  • Global Carbon Project — globalcarbonproject.org
  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology — bom.gov.au
  • German Meteorological Service — dwd.de
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration — eia.gov

Non-Profit / Archive

  • Carbon Tracker Initiative — carbontracker.org
  • Climate Policy Initiative — climatepolicyinitiative.org
  • Resources for the Future — rff.org
  • Center for Climate and Energy Solutions — c2es.org

Applies to all topics (116)

  • United Nations — un.org
  • World Bank — worldbank.org
  • IMF — imf.org
  • OECD — oecd.org
  • European Commission — ec.europa.eu
  • U.S. Congress — congress.gov
  • U.S. GAO — gao.gov
  • U.S. National Academies — nationalacademies.org
  • World Health Organization — who.int
  • UNESCO — unesco.org
  • UN Development Programme — undp.org
  • International Telecommunication Union — itu.int
  • World Intellectual Property Organization — wipo.int
  • International Atomic Energy Agency — iaea.org
  • International Civil Aviation Organization — icao.int
  • International Maritime Organization — imo.org
  • UN Food and Agriculture Organization — fao.org
  • International Labour Organization — ilo.org
  • UNCTAD — unctad.org
  • UN Human Rights Office — ohchr.org
  • UN Refugee Agency — unhcr.org
  • International Organization for Migration — iom.int
  • UN Office on Drugs and Crime — unodc.org
  • UNICEF — unicef.org
  • World Food Programme — wfp.org
  • World Trade Organization — wto.org
  • Bank for International Settlements — bis.org
  • Financial Action Task Force — fatf-gafi.org
  • African Union — au.int
  • ASEAN — asean.org
  • Organization of American States — oas.org
  • CARICOM — caricom.org
  • Pacific Islands Forum — forumsec.org
  • African Development Bank — afdb.org
  • Asian Development Bank — adb.org
  • Inter-American Development Bank — iadb.org
  • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — aiib.org
  • EBRD — ebrd.com
  • Council of Europe — coe.int
  • OSCE — osce.org
  • South Africa Government — gov.za
  • Statistics South Africa — statssa.gov.za
  • South African Reserve Bank — resbank.co.za
  • Central Bank of Nigeria — cbn.gov.ng
  • Kenya National Bureau of Statistics — knbs.or.ke
  • Central Bank of Kenya — centralbank.go.ke
  • Bank of Ghana — bog.gov.gh
  • Central Bank of Egypt — cbe.org.eg
  • Bank Al-Maghrib (Morocco) — bkam.ma
  • Rwanda National Institute of Statistics — statistics.gov.rw
  • Government of China — gov.cn
  • China National Bureau of Statistics — stats.gov.cn
  • People's Bank of China — pbc.gov.cn
  • Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs — mofa.go.jp
  • Statistics Bureau of Japan — stat.go.jp
  • Bank of Japan — boj.or.jp
  • Government of South Korea — korea.kr
  • Bank of Korea — bok.or.kr
  • Statistics Korea — kostat.go.kr
  • Government of India — india.gov.in
  • Reserve Bank of India — rbi.org.in
  • India Ministry of Statistics — mospi.gov.in
  • Press Information Bureau of India — pib.gov.in
  • Government of Singapore — gov.sg
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore — mas.gov.sg
  • Singapore Department of Statistics — singstat.gov.sg
  • Bank Negara Malaysia — bnm.gov.my
  • Malaysia Department of Statistics — dosm.gov.my
  • Bank Indonesia — bi.go.id
  • Statistics Indonesia — bps.go.id
  • Bank of Thailand — bot.or.th
  • State Bank of Vietnam — sbv.gov.vn
  • State Bank of Pakistan — sbp.org.pk
  • Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — pbs.gov.pk
  • Bangladesh Bank — bb.org.bd
  • Central Bank of Sri Lanka — cbsl.gov.lk
  • Nepal Rastra Bank — nrb.org.np
  • Saudi Central Bank — sama.gov.sa
  • Saudi General Authority for Statistics — stats.gov.sa
  • United Arab Emirates Government — u.ae
  • Central Bank of the UAE — centralbank.ae
  • Qatar Central Bank — qcb.gov.qa
  • Bank of Israel — boi.org.il
  • Israel Central Bureau of Statistics — cbs.gov.il
  • Central Bank of Turkey — tcmb.gov.tr
  • Turkish Statistical Institute — tuik.gov.tr
  • Government of Brazil — gov.br
  • IBGE (Brazil statistics) — ibge.gov.br
  • Central Bank of Brazil — bcb.gov.br
  • Government of Mexico — gob.mx
  • INEGI (Mexico statistics) — inegi.org.mx
  • Bank of Mexico — banxico.org.mx
  • Government of Argentina — argentina.gob.ar
  • INDEC (Argentina statistics) — indec.gob.ar
  • Central Bank of Argentina — bcra.gob.ar
  • Central Bank of Chile — bcentral.cl
  • Chile National Statistics Institute — ine.cl
  • DANE (Colombia statistics) — dane.gov.co
  • Bank of the Republic (Colombia) — banrep.gov.co
  • Central Reserve Bank of Peru — bcrp.gob.pe
  • INEI (Peru statistics) — inei.gob.pe
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics — abs.gov.au
  • Reserve Bank of Australia — rba.gov.au
  • Government of New Zealand — govt.nz
  • Stats NZ — stats.govt.nz
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand — rbnz.govt.nz
  • Government of the United Kingdom — gov.uk
  • UK Office for National Statistics — ons.gov.uk
  • Bank of England — bankofengland.co.uk
  • Swiss Federal Administration — admin.ch
  • Swiss National Bank — snb.ch
  • Statistics Norway — ssb.no
  • Statistics Sweden — scb.se
  • Government of Canada — canada.ca
  • Statistics Canada — statcan.gc.ca
  • Bank of Canada — bankofcanada.ca